Spring Market Update: Confidence Is Returning
Spring Market Update: Confidence Is Returning
A Wilson Property Group Market Update — September 2026
To Our Clients and Community,
Roughly three and a half months on from the recent changes to Government policy settings affecting the property market, we're finally able to report some genuinely good news: the market is finding its footing.
Sellers have largely come to terms with today's pricing reality. Buyers, for their part, are showing more willingness to commit. And the once-wide gap between what sellers expect and what buyers are prepared to pay has narrowed considerably.
What matters most is that deals are actually happening, and we're seeing renewed competitive tension on well-positioned listings, with several properties attracting more than one offer.
One thing hasn't changed from the frothier market of a year or two ago: buyers are pricing fairly, but they aren't stretching unless they genuinely feel they might lose out to another buyer. Competition — real competition — is still the thing that moves a price.
Spring is bringing the usual seasonal lift in new listings, which is entirely normal. The real story to watch over the coming months is whether returning buyer demand keeps pace with that extra stock, or whether supply gets ahead of it.
So What Has Actually Happened to Prices?
This is the question every homeowner wants answered, and the official monthly percentage changes reported in the media rarely give a useful answer for any one property.
Rather than relying on headline index figures, we prefer to build our view from the ground up — comparing recent settled sales in our own patch against comparable sales from the peak of the market.
On that basis, our assessment is that values have come back by somewhere in the order of 10% from their high point. As a rough guide, a home that might have fetched $1.2 million at the top of the market could now be realistically priced closer to $1.08 million.
Context matters here. The sharp run-up that followed the Government's 5% first-home buyer grant played out over a fairly short window — roughly a quarter — and pushed values up somewhere in the 10-15% range in that time. What we're watching now, in many cases, is simply that gain unwinding.
If you've owned your home for years rather than months, this correction is unlikely to be something to lose sleep over — you're still sitting on growth built up over a much longer run. The people genuinely exposed are those who bought near the top of the market and now find themselves needing to sell in a hurry. Our advice hasn't changed: don't let a short-term dip drive a decision you're making for the long term.
Presentation and Land Size Are Doing a Lot of the Work
Not every property is moving through this market at the same pace. Right now, buyer appetite is clearly concentrated on:
- Houses on larger blocks (generally 450m² and above)
- Homes that are move-in ready, with little or nothing left to do
- Properties that have been styled and presented well for sale
- Homes free of obvious maintenance backlog
- Properties without a locational drawback such as a busy road or flood exposure
Buyers today are choosier, but they'll still compete hard when a property genuinely ticks these boxes.
The Tenant Problem Nobody's Talking About
Somewhat unexpectedly, the biggest obstacle we're encountering isn't tied to a property type at all — it's whether a property is tenanted, and how long that lease has left to run.
Investor activity has fallen away sharply. Where investors might once have made up around half the enquiries at a typical open home, that figure has, in many cases, dropped into the single digits. That matters because a lease with six to twelve months still to run rules out a large slice of today's buyer pool — namely, owner-occupiers who want to move in themselves rather than inherit a tenancy.
If you own an investment property and aren't under pressure to sell immediately, it may be worth timing your campaign around the lease expiry rather than against it. Where appropriate, and within the bounds of the tenancy agreement, it can also be worth having a conversation with your tenant about an earlier, mutually agreeable exit. A vacant, well-presented property can be marketed to the widest possible audience — and that breadth of interest is often what drives the strongest result.
Units and Townhouses: A Familiar Pattern, in Reverse
We saw something similar during the COVID-era boom, just running the other way. Back then, houses led the price growth and attached dwellings took time to catch up. Today, houses are leading the correction downward, with units and townhouses following at a lag.
Plenty of buyers are still shopping with a house-and-land budget in mind, even when that budget doesn't quite stretch far enough. As reality sets in, we expect more of that demand to redirect toward units and townhouses over coming months.
These properties are still selling, but with less urgency behind each transaction. Expect a longer runway — often two to three months or more — unless the price and presentation are genuinely sharp from day one. Strategy still counts for a great deal, even when the broader segment is soft.
Where This Leaves Us
The signs of stabilisation are welcome, but we wouldn't call the market fully settled just yet. Broader economic uncertainty remains, and further policy announcements could still shift buyer or seller sentiment in either direction.
What we can promise is an honest, current read on conditions — drawn from what we're actually seeing at our open homes, in buyer enquiries, through negotiations, and in completed sales. The market has shifted, but confidence is clearly rebuilding.
Whether you're considering selling, buying, holding, or simply want a clearer picture of where your property sits today, our team is available for a no-obligation conversation at any time.
And as always: treat media headlines as a starting point, not the full picture. Talk to people working in the market day to day.
Kind regards,
Jacob Wilson
Sales Agent, Wilson Property Group
0417 712 973 | [email protected]
Sales Agent, Wilson Property Group
0417 712 973 | [email protected]
